The Chicago Fire just achieved something they haven’t done in nearly three decades. Per Yahoo Sports MLS, the club recently locked in their sixth straight victory across all competitions. This run marks the longest winning streak the team has seen in 28 years.
This massive momentum comes at a wild time for the league. Matchday 21 brings a full schedule of 15 different matches. Recent trends show a real struggle for teams playing at home. During the previous midweek round, only four of the 15 home sides actually won. In fact, eight different away teams walked away with all three points.
The Home Team Bounce Back
Despite that recent slump, I believe the home sides are ready to fix their recent bad luck. Some of these matchups look like prime opportunities to back the favorites. Take Orlando City SC, for example. They face Real Salt Lake in a game where the home side has a 49% win probability according to reports. Real Salt Lake hasn’t been great on the road lately either, winning only once in their last nine away trips.
Risky Matchups and Heavy Favorites
Not every game is a sure thing, though. Some matchups look like total toss-ups. The probability for a draw between Inter Miami FC and Toronto FC sits at a tiny 13% per reports. That is a wild number to see. Inter Miami is also dealing with some internal mess. After a 2-2 tie with Philadelphia, Yannick Bright is now facing a suspension. It’s hard to predict anything when the rosters are this unstable.
On the other hand, some teams look like locks. FC Cincinnati has a massive 61% chance to beat the Seattle Sounders. Charlotte FC also looks strong with a 54% probability of winning their match against D.C. United. When the numbers are that lopsided, you have to pay attention.
Stats Box: Matchday 21 Probabilities
• FC Cincinnati win probability: 61%
• Charlotte FC win probability: 54%
• Inter Miami/Toronto FC draw probability: 13%
• Real Salt Lake road wins in last nine: 1
The schedule is getting heavy for everyone. Fixture congestion is hitting MLS clubs hard right now. Some teams are already looking toward the next big thing. Real Salt Lake is already focused on their upcoming Tuesday League Cup match against Leon.
